QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://launchsims.com/en
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
LaunchSim JP Toolkit
Japanese Startup Launch Simulation43%
PIVOTLow channel reach and thin moat need fixes
Facts
Fermi estimate
¥1.2T annual Japanese startup launch service spend
1.5M active JP startups × ¥800k average launch support spend = ¥1.2T
Winner
Startup Door JP
Leads JP pre-launch simulation tools
Flop
LaunchPad Tokyo
Failed to scale due to poor channel fit
Must be true
1.70% of JP startups skip formal pre-launch simulation
2.JP startup launch budgets average ¥750k per campaign
3.Local compliance adds 20% to JP launch workload
Element balance
Fire · Small FortuneStartup launch matches fire's ignition metaphor
60
50
40
30
20
Fire
Rise
Water
Std
Air
Wane
Earth
Dorm
Spirit
Std
Probability chain
Demand exists
65%
62% of JP startups lack pre-launch tools
Unit economics
70%
¥30k CAC, ¥120k annual ARR per user
Channel reach
50%
Partnerships with 8 Tokyo incubators
Moat buildable
40%
Exclusive JP launch compliance data
Blockers
JP startup founders favor legacy local launch tools-10%
Limited JP-specific compliance content library-5%
Personas
H
Hiroshi32 yrsTokyo SaaS startup founder
We wasted weeks fixing unforeseen launch bugs
Y
Yuki45 yrsOsaka small business startup lead
I need to test campaigns before big spend
M
Mei28 yrsForeign JP startup founder
Local rules caught us completely off guard
"JP startup launch simulation toolkit for pre-launch testing"
launchsims.com/sim
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Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.