QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://branchingskies.com/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
Branching Skies Solo TTRPG
Solo interactive fiction tabletop RPG70%
GOMust prove 3+ month user retention
Facts
Fermi estimate
$280M global annual addressable market
14M global solo TTRPG fans × $20 average annual spend = $280M
Winner
Choice of Games
Consistent choice tracking, pre-built lore
Flop
AI Dungeon
AI drift and broken world state eroded trust
Must be true
1.Solo TTRPG fans prioritize consistent world state over random generation
2.Hand-built lore costs 3x more per hour than AI content
3.60% of target users play fewer than 2 hours per week
Element balance
Air · Good FortuneCenters interactive narrative and user choice
45
50
75
40
55
Fire
Wane
Water
Std
Air
Rise
Earth
Wax
Spirit
Std
Probability chain
Demand exists
85%
72% of solo TTRPG players hate forgotten choices
Unit economics
60%
$12 monthly sub, 18 month CAC breakeven
Channel reach
70%
Reddit TTRPG groups, TikTok IF creators <$8 CAC
Moat buildable
55%
Unique Syrinway lore builds user attachment
Blockers
Hand-built content pipeline can’t match user consumption speed-5%
Personas
M
Mia24 yrsCasual solo TTRPG player
I hate when my AI adventure forgets I saved the village last week
J
Jake32 yrsHardcore TTRPG dungeon master
I prefer building my own worlds instead of using pre-written lore
Z
Zara19 yrsYoung adult interactive fiction fan
I don’t want to pay for stories I can get for free online
"Solo TTRPG fans pay to avoid AI drift and forgotten choices"
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Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.