QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://sawatter.github.io/canada-under-carney/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
Carney Gov Policy Scorecard
Public Policy Accountability Tool61%
CONDITIONAL GOScoring bias risk threatens user credibility
Facts
Fermi estimate
$4.2M annual TAM for Canadian policy accountability tools
12k policy orgs * $300/year + 2.8M voters * $0.15 monthly ad RPM
Winner
FiveThirtyEight
Transparent methodology built user trust
Flop
Partisan policy scorecards
Perceived bias killed user adoption
Must be true
1.Independent bias-free scoring is required for user trust
2.Monthly update cadence drives consistent user engagement
3.Advocacy groups are highest value initial segment
Element balance
Air · Small FortuneCore offering is transparent public information flow
45
40
70
50
55
Fire
Wax
Water
Wane
Air
Rise
Earth
Std
Spirit
Wax
Probability chain
Demand exists
75%
2.8M engaged Canadian voters + 12k policy professionals
Unit economics
60%
Grants + premium org tiers can cover 120% of costs
Channel reach
65%
Canadian political media + advocacy group newsletters
Moat buildable
50%
No network effect, trust is only defensible asset
Blockers
Undisclosed partisan creator affiliation erodes 60% of user trust-8%
Personas
S
Sarah32 yrsFederal policy journalist
I need consistent unbiased data to cite in my monthly policy columns
M
Mike41 yrsConservative advocacy group director
I worry the scoring is biased to favor Carney's policy agenda
P
Priya28 yrsUniversity public policy researcher
This saves me 10 hours monthly aggregating policy outcome data
"Disclose creator affiliations first, test launch with advocacy groups"
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Probability × product signal
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