QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://berightbackapp.com/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
BRB Step-Lock Screen App
Health & Fitness Productivity62%
CONDITIONAL GOProven paid conversion needed for viability
Facts
Fermi estimate
~87.5M global users willing to pay for habit-focused screen tools
3.5B global adult smartphone users × 25% excessive screen time × 10% pay for habit tools = 87.5M
Winner
Opal
Ties screen limits to habit accountability
Flop
Old Forest App
No tangible real-world reward for use
Must be true
1.Users will not tolerate unintended app lockouts
2.Step tracking accuracy directly impacts user retention
3.80% of users churn if setup takes over 1 minute
Element balance
Earth · Good FortuneCore value ties digital use to physical movement
50
45
55
70
40
Fire
Wax
Water
Std
Air
Rise
Earth
Std
Spirit
Wane
Probability chain
Demand exists
75%
25% of global smartphone users report excessive doomscrolling
Unit economics
60%
$4.99 monthly subscription, $2 CAC target for TikTok ads
Channel reach
55%
TikTok habit hack content has 12B+ global views
Moat buildable
50%
Moderate brand moat possible via niche habit community
Blockers
Apple may restrict non-official API app locking functionality-5%
Personas
M
Mia28 yrsRemote marketing specialist
I scroll TikTok 2 hours daily instead of walking my dog after work
R
Raj34 yrsFreelance software developer
I already use Apple Screen Time, this adds unnecessary friction
L
Lila22 yrsCollege fitness enthusiast
I want to cut Instagram scrolling during my study breaks
"Tie app access to daily steps to cut doomscrolling and build activity habits"
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Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.