QuickSim · probability diagnosis
http://microlaunch.net/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
Microlaunch Tech Launch Platform
Two-sided B2B/B2C Tech Marketplace62%
CONDITIONAL GOFaces strong competition from established launch platforms
Facts
Fermi estimate
~$2.1B global annual tech launch and marketplace TAM
12M global indie makers x $75 avg launch fee + 87M early adopters x 20% take rate on $100 annual spend
Winner
Product Hunt
10+ year user base, strong network effects
Flop
BetaList
Stagnant growth, no exclusive discount incentives
Must be true
1.Makers only pay if launch drives ≥100 initial users
2.Early adopters need ≥30% discount vs public pricing
3.Leaderboards drive 60% of total platform traffic
Element balance
Air · Good FortuneFacilitates exchange between makers and early adopters
55
50
65
45
35
Fire
Rise
Water
Wax
Air
Rise
Earth
Wane
Spirit
Std
Probability chain
Demand exists
75%
12M global indie makers seek low-cost launch channels
Unit economics
70%
15% take rate + $49 launch fee = 3 month breakeven
Channel reach
60%
Target Reddit indie groups + Twitter maker communities
Moat buildable
55%
Curated discount inventory builds user lock-in over time
Blockers
Product Hunt controls 78% of global tech launch traffic-8%
65% of makers churn if launch drives <50 signups-2%
Personas
L
Liam27 yrsSolo SaaS indie maker
I pay $99 for Product Hunt launches, would switch for cheaper options
P
Priya32 yrsB2B SaaS early adopter
I check Product Hunt daily, will try new platforms for better deals
C
Carlos41 yrsPre-seed startup founder
I only launch where my target customers are, no unproven platforms
"Low-cost launch platform for makers with exclusive tech deals for adopters"
launchsims.com/sim
Scan for a quick diagnosis
Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.