QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://market-clean.andreiprojects.com/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
FB Marketplace Cleaner
E-commerce Browser Extensions67%
CONDITIONAL GONeeds paid tier to offset user acquisition costs
Facts
Fermi estimate
$45M annual North American TAM for Marketplace utility tools
1.5M frequent NA Marketplace buyers × $2.5/month × 12 months = $45M
Winner
Filter for Facebook
100k+ users, solves duplicate listing pain
Flop
Marketplace Pro
No free tier, failed to hit critical mass
Must be true
1.Frequent Marketplace buyers pay for time-saving tools
2.Chrome Web Store enables low-cost user acquisition
3.Facebook will not block client-side filtering tools
Element balance
Air · Good FortuneCuts search noise to deliver relevant local listings
55
45
70
40
50
Fire
Wax
Water
Std
Air
Rise
Earth
Wane
Spirit
Std
Probability chain
Demand exists
85%
72% of frequent buyers report search frustration
Unit economics
70%
$0.05 CAC per free user, 5% convert to $3/month paid
Channel reach
60%
Chrome Web Store + Reddit Marketplace communities
Moat buildable
30%
No network effects, features are easy to copy
Blockers
Facebook launches native strict radius filter feature-2%
Competitor copies core features within 3 months-1%
Personas
M
Mia28 yrsThrift clothing reseller
I spend 2 hours daily on Marketplace, this saves me 45 minutes
J
Jake34 yrsCasual used furniture buyer
I shop once a month, so the tool isn't worth paying for
L
Lisa41 yrsRare small business equipment buyer
I rarely use Marketplace, so this tool is useless for me
"Cut 70% of wasted time browsing Facebook Marketplace listings"
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Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.