QuickSim · probability diagnosis
Newly is an ai startup. so their service is: with prompting you can create your own application, and download it to app store and playstore (its part of the service) and in addition they create for you an AI video promoting your application
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
Newly AI App & Promo Builder
No-code AI app building + promo videos52%
PIVOTAdd app store submission to free trials
Facts
Fermi estimate
≈600k paying US SMB prospects/year
US SMBs without devs ≈12M, 5% actively seek no-code tools
Winner
Bubble
Leads no-code app building market
Flop
Appy Pie
Stagnated post-pandemic hype
Must be true
1.SMBs pay $50–100/month for turnkey app tools
2.App store submission is a hidden adoption barrier
3.AI promo videos drive higher user install rates
Element balance
Earth · NeutralProductivity tools align with Earth element
40
50
30
85
25
Fire
Std
Water
Std
Air
Wane
Earth
Rise
Spirit
Wane
Probability chain
Demand exists
70%
600k US SMBs actively seek no-code tools
Unit economics
65%
AOV $75/month → CAC must stay ≤ $25
Channel reach
60%
Targeted SMB Facebook group ads
Moat buildable
50%
App performance + promo video metrics moat
Blockers
Free trial skips app store submission, users abandon mid-flow-10%
Personas
M
Maria42 yrslocal café owner, $75/month budget
I don’t code, but app store rules scare me
J
Jake30 yrsfreelance marketer, builds client apps
This cuts my app build time by 80%
P
Priya35 yrsShopify e-commerce owner
We already have a Shopify app — why switch?
"Your buyers don’t care about coding — they care about installs"
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Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.