QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://berightbackapp.com/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
BRB App: Steps + Screen Lock
Digital Wellness / Habit Formation Apps62%
CONDITIONAL GOProve users won’t uninstall to bypass blocks
Facts
Fermi estimate
Global $12.7B 2024 digital wellness app market
1.2B global habit-focused smartphone users x $10.58 avg annual spend
Winner
Apple Screen Time
Native iOS access, zero acquisition cost
Flop
Forest App
Easy to cheat, low 30-day retention
Must be true
1.Users will uninstall if lock rules feel overly punitive
2.iOS permission changes can break core blocking functionality
3.30% free-to-paid conversion is required for profitability
Element balance
Fire · Good FortuneFuels action to replace idle scrolling with movement
75
55
45
35
30
Fire
Rise
Water
Std
Air
Wax
Earth
Wane
Spirit
Std
Probability chain
Demand exists
85%
72% of remote workers get <5k daily steps (Statista)
Unit economics
70%
$4.99/month sub, $0.27 CAC per App Store install
Channel reach
60%
Ranks for high-intent screen time blocker keywords
Moat buildable
40%
Apple can copy core feature in future iOS updates
Blockers
Apple may restrict third-party app blocking permissions-10%
Personas
M
Mia28 yrsRemote UX Designer
I scroll TikTok 2 hours daily instead of walking at lunch
R
Raj34 yrsSales Operations Lead
I already use Apple Fitness, see no unique value here
C
Chloe22 yrsCollege Undergrad
I’d delete the app if it blocks Instagram when I’m tired
"Lock distracting apps until you meet your set daily step goal"
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Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.