QuickSim · probability diagnosis
https://www.berightbackapp.com/
LaunchSim · Probability diagnosis
BeRightBack Checkout Saver
US DTC e-commerce conversion tool67%
CONDITIONAL GOMissing proof of 5% lift for mid-tier DTC brands
Facts
Fermi estimate
$700M annual US subscription TAM for DTC tools
1.2M US DTC brands * $49/month average subscription = ~$700M annual TAM
Winner
Recart
SMS cart recovery delivers 3x higher lift
Flop
CartHook
Folded after Shopify added native recovery
Must be true
1.DTC brands pay only for proven conversion lift
2.Free native platform tools undercut unproven SaaS
3.No-login access is required for mass shopper adoption
Element balance
Air · Good FortuneFacilitates cross-device connection for shoppers
55
50
65
45
40
Fire
Wax
Water
Std
Air
Rise
Earth
Wane
Spirit
Std
Probability chain
Demand exists
80%
69% of US checkouts are abandoned per Baymard
Unit economics
70%
CAC $120, LTV $588, 4.9x LTV:CAC ratio
Channel reach
70%
Shopify app store reaches 1.7M monthly merchants
Moat buildable
45%
No network effect, easy for Shopify to copy
Blockers
Shopify may launch native cross-device cart save in 2024-5%
50% of small DTC brands won’t pay over $29/month-2%
Personas
M
Mia32 yrsDTC apparel brand founder
I’d pay $49/month if this cuts abandonment by at least 6%
J
Jake27 yrsSmall candle brand owner
I use Shopify’s free cart recovery, no need for this
L
Lila41 yrsMid-tier beauty brand ops head
We need a 3 month trial to test lift before subscribing
"Prove measurable conversion lift to beat free Shopify tools"
launchsims.com/sim
Scan for a quick diagnosis
Probability × product signal
This is not business advice — just a structured angle on your product. Deep Sim is the full report.