QuickSim · 概率诊断
https://mouzi.cc/
LaunchSim · 概率诊断
Mouzi Downloads Organizer
Windows Desktop Productivity Utility68%
有条件 GOEnterprise MSI needs compliance validation
事实锚点 · FACTS
Fermi 估算
$280M global annual addressable market
1.4B Windows 10/11 users * 10% target * $20 ARPU * 1% conversion = $280M
同类跑出
File Juggler
Leads paid Windows auto-sorting niche
同类阵亡
SortMyFiles
No enterprise options stalled growth
必须为真
1.Power users expect advanced regex sorting capabilities
2.Enterprise buyers require third-party security compliance
3.Zero telemetry blocks UX improvement data collection
五行旺衰
Earth · Good FortuneDelivers stable, trusted local file organization
55
40
35
70
50
Fire
Waxing
Water
Steady
Air
Waning
Earth
Rising
Spirit
Steady
概率传导链 · REASONING
Demand exists
85%
62% of Windows users report cluttered Downloads folders
Unit economics
70%
Open source core, $120/year per enterprise support seat
Channel reach
50%
Listed on GitHub, IT forums, Microsoft App Store
Moat buildable
45%
No network effects, user switching costs are low
关键风险 · BLOCKERS
Lack of third-party security audit blocks enterprise deployments-3%
目标客群样本
J
Jake32岁Small business IT admin
I need to deploy this to 200 devices without per-device setup
M
Mia24岁Casual Windows user
I don't mind sorting my Downloads folder manually monthly
R
Raj41岁Enterprise security lead
I can't approve unvetted open source tools for our 10k fleet
「Prioritize enterprise fleet use cases over consumer growth」
launchsims.com/sim
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AI 概率 × 产品信号
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