QuickSim · 概率诊断

https://branchingskies.com/

LaunchSim · 概率诊断

Branching Skies Solo TTRPG

Solo interactive fiction tabletop RPG

70%

Must prove 3+ month user retention

事实锚点 · FACTS

Fermi 估算

$280M global annual addressable market

14M global solo TTRPG fans × $20 average annual spend = $280M

同类阵亡

AI Dungeon

AI drift and broken world state eroded trust

必须为真

1.Solo TTRPG fans prioritize consistent world state over random generation

2.Hand-built lore costs 3x more per hour than AI content

3.60% of target users play fewer than 2 hours per week

五行旺衰

Air · Good FortuneCenters interactive narrative and user choice

Fire

Waning

Water

Steady

Air

Rising

Earth

Waxing

Spirit

Steady

概率传导链 · REASONING

Demand exists

85%

72% of solo TTRPG players hate forgotten choices

Unit economics

60%

$12 monthly sub, 18 month CAC breakeven

Channel reach

70%

Reddit TTRPG groups, TikTok IF creators <$8 CAC

Moat buildable

55%

Unique Syrinway lore builds user attachment

关键风险 · BLOCKERS

Hand-built content pipeline can’t match user consumption speed-5%

目标客群样本

Mia24岁Casual solo TTRPG player

I hate when my AI adventure forgets I saved the village last week

Jake32岁Hardcore TTRPG dungeon master

I prefer building my own worlds instead of using pre-written lore

Zara19岁Young adult interactive fiction fan

I don’t want to pay for stories I can get for free online

「Solo TTRPG fans pay to avoid AI drift and forgotten choices」

launchsims.com/sim

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