QuickSim · 概率诊断
https://berightbackapp.com/
LaunchSim · 概率诊断
Be Right Back App
US Mobile Screen Time + Fitness Habit Ap52%
PIVOTUnclear paid tier confuses users
事实锚点 · FACTS
Fermi 估算
US annual TAM ~$56M
US iOS users ~130M, 12% target × $3/month ×10% conversion ×12mo
同类跑出
Forest App
Proven freemium habit focus model
同类阵亡
StepLocks
Low traction, limited app support
必须为真
1.US remote workers are 30% of target audience
2.Freemium needs consistent monthly subscription retention
3.Apple Health sync is mandatory for iOS users
五行旺衰
Fire · Good FortuneActive movement and habit drive align with fire
70
55
50
45
30
Fire
Rising
Water
Steady
Air
Waning
Earth
Steady
Spirit
Dormant
概率传导链 · REASONING
Demand exists
70%
60% of US adults report mindless social scrolling
Unit economics
65%
$2.99/month sub, breakeven at ~$0.50 CAC
Channel reach
60%
TikTok health niche + Apple App Store search
Moat buildable
50%
Limited step-locked app usage data moat
关键风险 · BLOCKERS
No explicit paid tier confuses first-time users-8%
Android waitlist delays cross-platform growth-5%
Emergency unlock weakens habit accountability-3%
目标客群样本
M
Mia32岁Remote marketing manager
I scroll TikTok first thing and skip daily walks
J
Jake28岁Remote software tester
I need to stop mindless Instagram scrolling
S
Sarah45岁Stay-at-home parent
I forget to hit my daily step goals
「iOS app blocks apps until you hit your daily step goal」
launchsims.com/sim
扫码生成诊断卡
AI 概率 × 产品信号
快速诊断不是商业建议，只是帮你结构化地看自己的产品。Deep Sim 才是那份完整报告。