QuickSim · 概率诊断
https://berightbackapp.com/
LaunchSim · 概率诊断
BRB Step-Lock Screen App
Digital Wellness & Habit Building App65%
有条件 GONeeds Android launch and paid tier validation
事实锚点 · FACTS
Fermi 估算
$1.2B global addressable market for iPhone wellness users
1.2B global iPhone users * 5% wellness-focused * $20/year ARPU = $1.2B TAM
同类跑出
Forest App
Ties rewards to focus, strong habit loop
同类阵亡
iOS Native Screen Time
Easily bypassed, no behavior incentives
必须为真
1.Unhackable app blocking is non-negotiable for paid users
2.Step sync failures trigger immediate user churn
3.Android users make up 70% of global smartphone owners
五行旺衰
Earth · Good FortuneBuilds tangible daily movement and screen habits
45
50
40
70
45
Fire
Rising
Water
Steady
Air
Waning
Earth
Waxing
Spirit
Steady
概率传导链 · REASONING
Demand exists
75%
68% of US adults report excess screen time (Pew 2023)
Unit economics
60%
$2.99/month subscription, 30% Apple App Store fee
Channel reach
65%
TikTok wellness audience CPM averages $1.18
Moat buildable
45%
No network effects, feature is easy to replicate
关键风险 · BLOCKERS
Apple may restrict third-party app blocking in future iOS updates-3%
Step sync delays over 5 minutes double churn rate-1%
目标客群样本
M
Mia26岁WFH content creator, 4hrs daily doomscrolling
I’d pay $5/month to stop scrolling TikTok during work breaks
R
Raj34岁Android user, 5k weekly runner on waitlist
I won’t switch to iPhone just for this app, I’ll wait
S
Sarah41岁Elementary school teacher, Fitbit user
I can’t block work messaging apps, so this is useless for me
「Tie screen access to steps to cut scrolling and build movement habits」
launchsims.com/sim
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AI 概率 × 产品信号
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