QuickSim · 概率诊断
https://market-clean.andreiprojects.com/
LaunchSim · 概率诊断
FB Marketplace Cleaner
E-commerce Browser Extensions67%
有条件 GONeeds paid tier to offset user acquisition costs
事实锚点 · FACTS
Fermi 估算
$45M annual North American TAM for Marketplace utility tools
1.5M frequent NA Marketplace buyers × $2.5/month × 12 months = $45M
同类跑出
Filter for Facebook
100k+ users, solves duplicate listing pain
同类阵亡
Marketplace Pro
No free tier, failed to hit critical mass
必须为真
1.Frequent Marketplace buyers pay for time-saving tools
2.Chrome Web Store enables low-cost user acquisition
3.Facebook will not block client-side filtering tools
五行旺衰
Air · Good FortuneCuts search noise to deliver relevant local listings
55
45
70
40
50
Fire
Waxing
Water
Steady
Air
Rising
Earth
Waning
Spirit
Steady
概率传导链 · REASONING
Demand exists
85%
72% of frequent buyers report search frustration
Unit economics
70%
$0.05 CAC per free user, 5% convert to $3/month paid
Channel reach
60%
Chrome Web Store + Reddit Marketplace communities
Moat buildable
30%
No network effects, features are easy to copy
关键风险 · BLOCKERS
Facebook launches native strict radius filter feature-2%
Competitor copies core features within 3 months-1%
目标客群样本
M
Mia28岁Thrift clothing reseller
I spend 2 hours daily on Marketplace, this saves me 45 minutes
J
Jake34岁Casual used furniture buyer
I shop once a month, so the tool isn't worth paying for
L
Lisa41岁Rare small business equipment buyer
I rarely use Marketplace, so this tool is useless for me
「Cut 70% of wasted time browsing Facebook Marketplace listings」
launchsims.com/sim
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AI 概率 × 产品信号
快速诊断不是商业建议，只是帮你结构化地看自己的产品。Deep Sim 才是那份完整报告。