QuickSim · 概率诊断
https://berightbackapp.com/
LaunchSim · 概率诊断
BRB Step + Screen Time App
Fitness & Digital Wellbeing iOS App63%
有条件 GOLow moat and limited Android reach
事实锚点 · FACTS
Fermi 估算
US Target TAM ~22 Million Adults
39M US remote workers + 40M screen time addicts, minus 57% overlap = ~22M US TAM
同类跑出
Forest App
Dominates iOS habit focus space
同类阵亡
StepLock App
Failed to combine step + app blocking
必须为真
1.US remote workers face worst screen time + low movement
2.7-day free trial matches US app store norms
3.Apple Health sync is mandatory for target users
五行旺衰
Earth · Good FortuneSupports consistent habit formation
42
51
38
72
47
Fire
Waning
Water
Steady
Air
Rising
Earth
Steady
Spirit
Waxing
概率传导链 · REASONING
Demand exists
78%
6.9B tracked steps from active users
Unit economics
72%
$4.99/month post 7-day free trial
Channel reach
62%
iOS first, Android waitlist active
Moat buildable
55%
Health data and user streak networks
关键风险 · BLOCKERS
Apple App Store review delays for health kit features-7%
Free trial conversion below 15% industry average-4%
目标客群样本
M
Mia32岁Remote marketing manager
I scroll TikTok till 1am then skip morning walks
J
Jake45岁Freelance graphic designer
I set limits but always hit emergency unlock early
L
Lila28岁College student
I don’t own a smart watch for step tracking
「iOS app locks distracting apps until step goal met」
launchsims.com/sim
扫码生成诊断卡
AI 概率 × 产品信号
快速诊断不是商业建议，只是帮你结构化地看自己的产品。Deep Sim 才是那份完整报告。